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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still