A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
